(REUTERS): In his quest to define his strategic objectives, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to view 2025 as a pivotal year. These include bolstering Israel's military presence in Gaza, confronting Iran's nuclear ambitions, and exploiting the declining support of Tehran's regional allies, such as Palestinian Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
With the overthrow of Assad's government, the removal of the top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the destruction of their military bases, Netanyahu is expected to make major progress in the area. Both Netanyahu's leadership and Israel's overall policy are viewed as having achieved significant successes with these occurrences.
Iran's decades-long regional connections are disintegrating with the overthrow of Assad. Israel is becoming the leading regional force as Iran's influence waned. Israel is well-positioned to target Iran's nuclear program and missile development as a result of this change in the geopolitical environment.
According to experts, Iran is currently faced with a crucial choice: either continue its nuclear enrichment activities or reduce its atomic program and negotiate. The director of the International Crisis Group's Middle East and North Africa Program, Joost R. Hiltermann, stated that "Iran is highly vulnerable to an Israeli attack, especially against its nuclear program." "An Israeli strike might occur, but it wouldn't destroy Iran's abilities," he said.
Regarding the possibility of a military conflict, Palestinian analyst Ghassan al-Khatib stated that Israel and the Trump administration may attack aggressively if Iran does not yield. Al-Khatib added that Iran's historical pragmatism might result in a settlement to prevent a full-scale war.
In addition to Iran’s nuclear issue, former U.S. President Donald Trump, having withdrawn from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, is expected to increase sanctions on Iran's oil industry. Critics argue that diplomacy would be a more effective long-term approach, but it remains to be seen whether this policy will change under the new administration.
Netanyahu's political legacy will also be greatly influenced by the outcome of his corruption trial, which resumed in December 2024. Netanyahu's time as prime minister has become more complicated as a result of the trial's profound rift in Israeli society. Netanyahu's emphasis on the Gaza crisis continues to be a key component of his agenda, notwithstanding the current political unrest.
Netanyahu and Hamas are expected to sign a ceasefire deal, which might put an end to the 14-month conflict in Gaza. The release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas is reportedly part of the ceasefire. However, unless the United States has a workable plan to transfer sovereignty to the Palestinian sovereignty (PA), which Netanyahu opposes, Israel is expected to continue to maintain military control over Gaza.
Maintaining Israeli forces in Gaza appears to be at the heart of Netanyahu's long-term strategy for the protracted conflict. Palestinian scholar Ghassan al-Khatib said Israel believes its presence in Gaza is crucial to preventing Hamas from regrouping. This point of view backs Netanyahu's overall strategy to prevent Palestinian independence while maintaining Israeli sovereignty over areas essential to the aspirations of a future Palestinian state, including Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem.
Hamas militants invaded Israel on October 7, 2023, sparking the start of the Gaza conflict, which has claimed many lives on both sides. Over a million people have been displaced by the fighting, and more than 45,000 Palestinians have reportedly died. A ceasefire is unlikely to end the protracted Palestinian-Israeli conflict, even though it would stop the current violence.
Given Netanyahu's rejection of such a result, the likelihood of a Palestinian state appears to be dwindling. Israeli settler leaders, meanwhile, are hopeful that the United States would support their goals, which include growing the number of settlements in the occupied West Bank.
There are billboards in some parts of the West Bank that read, "No Future in Palestine," demonstrating the settler movement's increasing power. Tensions are rising, and there is less chance for a negotiated settlement, which is reflected in the rise in settler violence against Palestinians.
Experts like Joost Hiltermann contend that any agreement would be skewed significantly in favor of Israel, even if the Trump administration were to advocate for a settlement to the dispute. Hiltermann stated, "It's over when it comes to a Palestinian state, but the Palestinians are still there," implying that Israel's hegemony in the area will endure notwithstanding Palestinian ambitions.
During Trump's previous administration, Netanyahu achieved several diplomatic victories, such as the "Deal of the Century," which received backing from the US. A major shift in U.S. policy was marked by this 2020 plan, which explicitly supported Israel's interests and deviated from the established land-for-peace framework. By proposing the annexation of large portions of the West Bank and the designation of Jerusalem as Israel's undivided capital, the plan effectively rejected Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem.
The situation in Syria is at a turning point after Assad's administration was overthrown. Rebel forces under the command of Ahmad al-Sharaa (Abu Mohammed al-Golani) of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have taken control of sizable portions of Syria. The massive task of establishing authority over a split Syria, where the state apparatus has fallen apart, now falls to Golani.
HTS needs to control Syria's borders, maintain internal stability, and rebuild its armed forces and police. Nonetheless, there are worries that HTS, which was formerly associated with al-Qaeda, would adopt a more extremist Islamist philosophy. This change might make Syria even more unstable and halt any efforts to bring the country together.
There might be hope for Syria's future if HTS can effectively portray itself as a Syrian nationalist movement, according to Joost Hiltermann. The group might, however, cause protracted instability if it reverts to its Islamist origins, as was the case in Libya and Iraq. Syria's future primarily rests on HTS's capacity to control its ideological character.
As Syria struggles with its internal divisions, its future remains uncertain. The country is home to a variety of ethnic and religious communities, including Sunnis, Shi'ites, Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and Christians, all of whom have a stake in the country's future governance.
Israel's growing status as the leading power in the Middle East is paving the way for a new regional order brought about by geopolitical shifts in the region. The region's course will be greatly influenced by Netanyahu's 2025 goals as Iran's power declines and the Syrian conflict moves into a new stage.
