KATHMANDU: The United States and China have completed their first informal discussions on nuclear arms in five years. Chinese officials told their American interlocutors that Beijing will not resort to nuclear threats in any conflict over Taiwan, American participants have said. The talks were taking place as a Track Two dialogue between former government officials and scholars in both countries.
"Chinese delegates came with a lot of confidence towards our delegation, saying they really had no chance of winning a conventional conflict against Taiwan and therefore did not need the nuclear option," said David Santoro, who arranged the conference for the US. That followed the US expressing its concern that China would have nuclear options in response to military defeat in a Taiwan scenario. Taiwan, a democratically ruled state, belongs to Beijing's claim while Taipei rebuffs the assertion.
These discussions have also centered around broader issues of nuclear policy, such as whether China still holds to the long-standing policies of no-first-use and minimal deterrence. Dating back to China's first nuclear test in the 1960s, this meant the express commitment not to initiate a nuclear conflict and to hold only minimum requirements for deterrence purposes.
The Track Two talks are part of a larger initiative to keep alive the dialogue on nuclear issues between the two major powers, as their relations have been biting the dust over economic and geopolitical issues. Formal Track One negotiations on nuclear arms have come to a standstill, although the Track Two top ranking can prove to be an important channel to probe mutual understanding and possible directions of cooperation or risk reduction.
While there was constructive dialogue in Shanghai, official agreements on reducing the risk of nuclear exchange remain elusive. The US is frustrated by China's responsiveness in the Track One talks—a track consisting of principal-level talks between countries—and has expressed its concern toward Beijing's nuclear modernization program, including missile technology advances and at-sea patrols.
